Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nate Silver joins the pod!
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10 min
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30:00
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- (0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!
- (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India
- (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base
- (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems
- (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed
- (50:01 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard
- (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC
Thanks to our partners!
Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE
PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X)
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Raw Description
<p dir="ltr">(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!</p> <p dir="ltr">(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India</p> <p dir="ltr">(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base</p> <p dir="ltr">(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems</p> <p dir="ltr">(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed</p> <p dir="ltr">(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard</p> <p dir="ltr">(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC</p> <p dir="ltr"> </p> <p>Thanks to our partners!</p> <p>Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at <a href= "http://northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE">northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE</a></p> <p>PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at <a href="http://plaud.ai/allin">Plaud.ai/allin</a> and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: <a href= "https://amzn.to/43URLff">https://amzn.to/43URLff</a> (Code: ALLIN20X)</p> <p>Follow Nate:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/NateSilver538">https://x.com/NateSilver538</a> </p> <p>Follow the besties:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/chamath">https://x.com/chamath</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/Jason">https://x.com/Jason</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/DavidSacks">https://x.com/DavidSacks</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/friedberg">https://x.com/friedberg</a></p> <p>Follow on X:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/theallinpod">https://x.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on Instagram:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod">https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on TikTok:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod">https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on LinkedIn:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod">https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod</a></p> <p>Intro Music Credit:</p> <p><a href="https://rb.gy/tppkzl">https://rb.gy/tppkzl</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/yung_spielburg">https://x.com/yung_spielburg</a></p> <p>Intro Video Credit:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/TheZachEffect">https://x.com/TheZachEffect</a></p>
Chapters (1/6)
Show Notes
- (0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!
- (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India
- (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base
- (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems
- (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed
- (50:01 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard
- (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC
Thanks to our partners!
Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE
PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X)
Follow Nate:
Follow the besties:
Follow on X:
Follow on Instagram:
Follow on TikTok:
Follow on LinkedIn:
Intro Music Credit:
Intro Video Credit:
Raw Description
<p dir="ltr">(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!</p> <p dir="ltr">(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India</p> <p dir="ltr">(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base</p> <p dir="ltr">(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems</p> <p dir="ltr">(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed</p> <p dir="ltr">(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard</p> <p dir="ltr">(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC</p> <p dir="ltr"> </p> <p>Thanks to our partners!</p> <p>Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at <a href= "http://northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE">northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE</a></p> <p>PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at <a href="http://plaud.ai/allin">Plaud.ai/allin</a> and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: <a href= "https://amzn.to/43URLff">https://amzn.to/43URLff</a> (Code: ALLIN20X)</p> <p>Follow Nate:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/NateSilver538">https://x.com/NateSilver538</a> </p> <p>Follow the besties:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/chamath">https://x.com/chamath</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/Jason">https://x.com/Jason</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/DavidSacks">https://x.com/DavidSacks</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/friedberg">https://x.com/friedberg</a></p> <p>Follow on X:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/theallinpod">https://x.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on Instagram:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod">https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on TikTok:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod">https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on LinkedIn:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod">https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod</a></p> <p>Intro Music Credit:</p> <p><a href="https://rb.gy/tppkzl">https://rb.gy/tppkzl</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/yung_spielburg">https://x.com/yung_spielburg</a></p> <p>Intro Video Credit:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/TheZachEffect">https://x.com/TheZachEffect</a></p>